Why December Might Be the Best Time to Buy San Francisco Luxury Real Estate

Is San Francisco's Downtown Recovery Finally Real?

If you've been waiting for concrete evidence that San Francisco is bouncing back, the data just arrived from an unexpected source: DoorDash.

The food delivery giant's newly released "State of Local Commerce" report reveals that weekday lunch deliveries to commercial addresses—think office buildings—surged 15.7% year-over-year. That's the second-highest jump among the nation's 100 largest cities, trailing only Chandler, Arizona.

The national average? Just 2.5%.

"San Francisco is recovering at more than six times the national rate," observes Sean Mamola, Global Luxury Specialist with Compass. "This tracks with what I'm seeing on the ground: AI companies have absorbed over a million square feet of office space in the past year, vacancy rates are finally ticking down, and there's real energy returning to neighborhoods like South Beach, Yerba Buena, and Mission Bay that felt quiet for too long."

The lunch delivery data suggests that San Francisco is participating in—and in some cases leading—a broader return-to-office movement. More than half of the 100 cities DoorDash studied showed increases in weekday lunch orders to commercial addresses, indicating a national shift back toward in-person work.

For San Francisco's luxury real estate market, this signals strengthening fundamentals. Tech workers returning to offices need housing. AI companies expanding their footprints create demand. And the city's scrappy resilience continues to reward those who stayed bullish.

Why Is More Than Half of Bay Area Inventory Still Sitting?

While San Francisco's economic recovery gains momentum, the residential real estate market tells a more nuanced story—one that creates significant opportunity for strategic buyers.

A recent Compass analysis of Bay Area inventory reveals a striking pattern: 55% of active listings have been on market for over two months. That's more than half of available inventory sitting since before the fall market even kicked off.

The pattern intensifies at higher price points:

• 52% of homes in the $5-10 million range have passed the 90-day mark

• 70% of $10 million+ properties have exceeded 90 days on market

"These aren't flawed homes; they're mispriced ones," notes Mamola. "And after two or three months without offers, those sellers are staring down the holidays with a very different mindset than they had back in September."

Year-end deadlines, carrying costs, and the psychological weight of a stale listing all create flexibility that simply doesn't exist during competitive spring markets.

What Does December's Market Data Actually Show?

The numbers from the past two weeks illustrate the current market dynamics with striking clarity.

A $17.75 million Pacific Heights estate that sat for 195 days finally closed—at $8.25 million under asking. Meanwhile, a correctly priced Bayview home sold for $122,000 over asking in just 12 days.

The contrast is instructive: pricing strategy matters more than ever.

Other notable activity:

• Three properties cleared $10 million in the last two weeks

• Four more closed entirely off-market

• Over 80 properties currently sit in "Coming Soon" status

That last figure deserves attention. The freshest inventory often moves through private channels before it ever hits the open market—a reality that underscores the value of working with an agent who has access to off-market opportunities.

Should Luxury Buyers Stay Active Through the Holidays?

The conventional wisdom says buyers should pause during December and wait for spring. But the data suggests otherwise.

"December rewards boldness," says Mamola. "Fewer competing buyers means less pressure, more breathing room during inspections and negotiations, and sellers who are genuinely ready to talk numbers. If you've been watching a property linger, this is your moment to make an offer."

The math particularly favors buyers in the condo market, where inventory runs even deeper than single-family homes. Buildings throughout South Beach, Yerba Buena, and Mission Bay offer opportunities for buyers willing to stay active while others wait.

Strategic Implications

For Buyers:

• Target listings that have exceeded 60-90 days on market—sellers are increasingly motivated as year-end approaches

• December's reduced competition provides leverage that evaporates in spring

• Consider off-market channels; over 80 properties currently sit in "Coming Soon" status

• The condo market offers particularly deep inventory for negotiation opportunities

For Sellers:

• The 195-day, $8.25M price reduction in Pacific Heights serves as a cautionary tale about launch pricing

• Properties priced correctly are still moving quickly—the Bayview home at $122K over asking in 12 days proves it

• If you're considering a spring listing, now is the time to develop pricing strategy with current market data

For Everyone:

• San Francisco's economic fundamentals are strengthening, with AI-driven office absorption and downtown recovery metrics improving

• The disconnect between economic optimism and real estate pricing creates a window for strategic positioning

• Off-market transactions continue to represent significant activity—relationship-driven deal flow matters

Frequently Asked Questions

How much are luxury San Francisco homes selling below asking price? Current data shows significant variability. A Pacific Heights estate recently sold $8.25 million below its $17.75 million asking price after 195 days on market. However, correctly priced properties still achieve strong results, with some selling over asking within two weeks.

What percentage of Bay Area luxury homes are sitting unsold? According to recent Compass analysis, 55% of all active Bay Area listings have been on market for over two months. For homes priced $5-10 million, 52% have exceeded 90 days. For $10 million+ properties, that figure reaches 70%.

Is San Francisco's real estate market recovering? Economic indicators suggest recovery momentum. DoorDash's "State of Local Commerce" report shows weekday lunch deliveries to San Francisco commercial addresses increased 15.7% year-over-year—more than 6x the national average. AI companies have absorbed over 1 million square feet of office space in the past year.

Is December a good time to buy luxury real estate in San Francisco? Data suggests December offers advantages for strategic buyers. Reduced competition, motivated sellers facing year-end deadlines, and deeper inventory create negotiating leverage that typically doesn't exist during competitive spring markets.

Where are the best luxury condo opportunities in San Francisco? Neighborhoods with significant condo inventory include South Beach, Yerba Buena, and Mission Bay. The condo market currently offers deeper inventory than single-family homes, creating opportunities for buyers willing to stay active through the holidays.

Ready to See Which Listings Have the Most Room to Negotiate?

December's market dynamics create opportunities for buyers willing to act while others wait. Whether you're targeting a luxury condo in South Beach or a single-family home in Pacific Heights, understanding which properties have flexibility—and which sellers are ready to talk—makes all the difference.

Thinking about selling in spring? The 195-day timeline and $8.25M price adjustment is worth discussing before you list. Let's develop a pricing strategy grounded in current market realities.

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Sean Mamola is a Global Luxury Specialist with Compass, specializing in San Francisco's premier neighborhoods including Pacific Heights, Russian Hill, Nob Hill, South Beach, Yerba Buena, and Mission Bay. With a background in luxury hospitality and deep expertise in the Bay Area market, Sean helps buyers and sellers navigate San Francisco's most competitive segments.