San Francisco Condos in October: More Bidding Wars and More Price Cuts at the Same Time

San Francisco's condo median was $1,344,500 in October, up 12% from a year ago and the highest October median since at least 2020. Sixty-eight percent of condos sold over asking, also an October high. And 18% of condo listings took a price cut, the highest October share since at least 2020.

Those three numbers don't contradict each other. They describe one market that's sorting listings into two piles. The well-priced ones draw multiple offers. The rest sit, and then get cut.

That split is the story of this month's report, and it's the one I'd plan around for the rest of the year.

The month in numbers

Source: Compass International Holdings, November 2026 report (data through October 2026). October figures are preliminary, and late MLS reporting can add closings for about two weeks after month-end.

The short version is a very tight market for both houses and condos, with rising condo price cuts as the one real sign of buyer pushback. I'd give that second part more weight than the headline numbers suggest.

On houses, one caution. The single-family median jumped 16% in one month, which says more about which houses sold than about what any one house is worth. Read the 29% gain loosely.

The median held, which is what I was watching for

Last month I said the test for this year's condo recovery was whether the median stayed near $1.35 million through October and November. October's answer is yes. The median was $1,355,500 in September's preliminary count and $1,344,500 in October, a difference of less than 1%.

Holding matters more to me than the 12%. October last year was a decent month, so the year-over-year gain is real but smaller than September's 23%. What's new is that the condo median has now spent two straight months near its spring high, in the season when it usually drifts lower. That's starting to look like a level rather than a spike.

Condos also sold a little slower than in September, at 36 days on market against 32. That's still 16% faster than a year ago, and condo supply fell to 1.9 months from 2.3.

Price cuts are the other half of the story

Here's the number I keep coming back to. Eighty-six condo listings took a price reduction in October, and 18% of all condo listings took one. That's the highest share for any October since at least 2020. For perspective, just under 43% of listings nationally carry a price cut right now, according to Compass chief economist Mike Simonsen's weekly note. San Francisco's cuts are rising, but from a much lower base.

In the same month, more condos sold over asking than in any October in that stretch. Both things happened because buyers got more selective, not because they got scarce. A condo that's priced to its building's recent sales and shows well is still drawing a crowd. A condo that's priced to last spring's headlines, or to what a neighbor got for a better floor plan, is sitting until the seller adjusts.

That's a healthier market than one where everything sells over asking. It's also a less forgiving one for a seller who misses on day one. I covered the mechanics of getting that number right in how to price a San Francisco luxury condo in 2026.

Rates peaked in mid-October and have eased since

Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.40% on October 8 and again on October 15. It's come down every week since, to 7.32%, then 7.24%, and 7.18% on November 5. A year ago it was 6.22%.

That's relief, but a modest one. Simonsen notes that a typical mortgage payment, which ran about 12% above a year earlier for a stretch in October, is now about 7% above. He also points out that buyers react to the direction of rates as much as the level. Someone who's been shopping at 7.5% sees 7.2% as a bargain, and some of them act.

The Fed raised rates in September, held in October, and markets see a December hike as moderately likely. With inflation still well above the Fed's 2% target, there's no guarantee lower mortgage rates last. I'd treat 7.18% as a better week, not a new trend.

The timing also explains why October's closings look so strong. Most condos that closed in October went into contract in September, when rates were rising but hadn't peaked. The full effect of the 7.40% weeks lands in November and December closings. Nationally, Simonsen has pending sales running 13% below last year, an improvement from 18% a few weeks earlier. San Francisco's closings haven't shown a drop like that yet. I'll be watching whether they do.

One more thing if you're at the top of the market. The Nasdaq gave back about 12% from its early-October peak, and stock compensation funds much of the Bay Area's high-end buying. A sustained pullback could cool luxury demand into year-end. That's a risk, not a forecast, but it's one I'm watching.

The neighborhood picture

The usual caution first. These are one-month samples, and every neighborhood below had 23 or fewer closings across houses and condos. Lower Pacific Heights had fewer than five condo sales, which makes its median especially volatile. At this size, one large sale moves the median a long way. Treat it as a snapshot.

Source: Compass, November 2026 report. Condo medians and price per square foot are condos only. Closings and active listings combine houses and condos. Small samples, directional only.

The neighborhoods split cleanly this month. Mission Bay, Lower Pacific Heights, Russian Hill and Pacific Heights all posted condo medians up 30% or more, each landing between $1,301 and $1,376 per square foot. Their inventory is thin, too. Pacific Heights closed 23 sales against 23 listings, and Mission Bay closed 15 against 15.

Nob Hill is the clearest case of a median telling the wrong story. Its condo median fell 30%, to $918,750. But its price per square foot was $1,056, and half of its 16 October sales closed under $1 million. That's a month weighted toward smaller units, not a neighborhood that lost a third of its value in a year. I'd wait for November before reading anything into it.

South Beach is the steady one. Its condo median rose 5%, to $1,257,500, at $1,323 per square foot. It has the deepest inventory in the city again, 75 listings across houses and condos, up from 55 a month ago. For a buyer who wants choice on the waterfront, that's the widest selection I've seen there this year.

Van Ness/Civic Center remains the value end of the core, at $640,000 and $816 per square foot. Ten of its 13 October sales closed under $1 million.

What I said I'd watch, and what happened

Last month I named four things to watch between now and the holidays. Here's the scorecard.

The condo median holding near $1.35 million. It held, at $1,344,500. One more month at this level would make it a floor for me.

The rate jump showing up first below $1.5 million. Too early to say. October's closings mostly reflect September contracts, and this report doesn't break overbidding out by price. The rising share of price cuts is the first sign of pushback, and I'll look for where it concentrates in December's report.

Whether the 758 active listings got absorbed. Mostly, yes. The city ended October with 767 active listings and 555 in contract, nearly the same inventory as a month earlier, even as fall listings kept coming. The fall listing wave is also fading, with new single-family listings down from September in every Northern California county.

Yerba Buena's upper tier. Still quiet, with two sales above $2 million in October.

The lending rule hasn't gone away

The next date on the condo lending calendar is January 4, 2027. That's when Fannie Mae's minimum reserve allocation rises from 10% to 15% of an association's budgeted income, for loan applications dated on or after that day, under Lender Letter LL-2026-03.

I still don't see it in the county numbers, and I didn't expect to. It shows up building by building. A well-funded association passes the review without anyone noticing. One that's below the new threshold is where a buyer's loan stalls. I covered how that plays out in why a condo gets stuck at the lender. This is general information, not lending advice, so a loan officer should confirm how it applies to any specific building.

From experience: A condo that needs a price cut usually needs one cut, not three. Small reductions spaced a few weeks apart tell buyers the seller is still negotiating with the market, and buyers who see that tend to wait for the next one. A single adjustment to where the recent sales in the building actually are is the one that brings people back through the door.

If you're buying this winter

You're shopping in a market with two speeds. Well-priced condos in Mission Bay, Pacific Heights and Russian Hill are still drawing multiple offers, and thin inventory there means a short window. Have your financing settled and your lender's read on the building before you write.

At the same time, nearly one in five condo listings took a price cut in October. Those are the listings where you have room to negotiate, and they tend to cluster where inventory is deep, like South Beach and Van Ness/Civic Center.

Rates eased to 7.18%, but the Fed may not be done. If you're deciding whether to wait for something lower, I laid out the trade-off in should you wait for mortgage rates to drop before buying in San Francisco.

If you're selling this winter

October showed you both outcomes side by side. Sixty-eight percent of condos sold over asking, and 18% of listings took a cut. The difference usually comes down to the first price.

Price to the last few comparable sales in your building and floor plan, adjusting for building floor and view, not to the county's 12%. Have the association's budget, reserve study, insurance certificate and minutes ready on day one. A buyer applying for a loan after January 4 does it under the higher reserve threshold, so a strong association file matters more after the new year than before it.

If you're deciding between listing before the holidays and waiting for spring, I've laid out that trade-off in should I list now or wait until spring. And for last month's numbers in full, see my October market report.

Work With Sean Mamola

Wondering which side of October's split your condo would land on? Sean Mamola brings 17+ years of San Francisco real estate experience and a luxury hospitality background to every client relationship, with a track record that runs from entry-level condos to an $8.7M South Beach penthouse. As a Global Luxury Specialist with Compass, Sean pairs building-level knowledge with the market data behind this report, so buyers and sellers can move with confidence this winter. Schedule a consultation or call (415) 704-3640.