The San Francisco Condo Market Is Quietly Catching Up

For the past few years, the story in San Francisco real estate has belonged to single-family houses. They led the recovery, they set the record prices, and they captured most of the headlines. Condominiums, meanwhile, spent that stretch doing the unglamorous work of finding a floor.

That chapter is closing. As of July, the city's condo market is no longer just stable. It is appreciating, absorbing inventory faster, and rewarding well-prepared sellers with real competition. If you have been tracking these updates, it is the natural next step from last month's report, where the houses went vertical and the condo market was just beginning to tighten. For anyone who owns a condo here, or has been waiting for the right moment to buy one, this is the most constructive the segment has looked in years.

Here is the full picture, and what it means for you.

The backdrop: a wealth-driven market, not a rate-driven one

Mortgage rates ended July near 6.77%, their highest level of the year and up from a low of 5.99% earlier in 2026. Rates have stayed elevated largely on inflation concerns, with consumer prices running around 3.5% nationally and closer to 3.8% here in the Bay Area, still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. In most of the country, borrowing costs at this level cool demand. San Francisco is behaving differently.

The reason is wealth, not borrowing. The AI boom has concentrated an enormous amount of new equity in this city, and the stock market has spent 2026 near record highs, up roughly 20% year over year. When portfolios climb, confidence to buy climbs with them, particularly at the top of the market where cash and accumulated equity matter more than the monthly payment. Economists call it the wealth effect, and it has been especially acute in specific San Francisco neighborhoods this year.

Stock market gains near record highs have fueled a measurable wealth effect. Source: Compass International Holdings.

The result is a genuine divergence from the rest of the region and the country. San Francisco's median sale price is up roughly 25% year over year, the strongest in the entire Bay Area. San Mateo County, absorbing some of the overflow down the Peninsula, is up nearly 10%. The other eight Bay Area counties look essentially flat, much like the nation as a whole. So while national home prices are barely moving, and the broader Bay Area labor market has actually seen almost no job growth in 2026, San Francisco itself is running on a different engine entirely.

San Francisco led the region in July at 25% year-over-year appreciation. Source: Compass via MLS.

That local outperformance is the current that is finally lifting condos.

Condos, by the numbers

Through July, the San Francisco condo market showed:

• Median sale price of $1.25 million, up 13.6% year over year and 3.1% from June.
• Median price per square foot of $1,103, up 13.1% year over year.
• Closed sales of 276, up 24.9% year over year.
• Pending sales of 221, up 15.7% year over year, a sign the pipeline is still filling.
• Active inventory of 417 listings, down 42.5% year over year.
• Average days on market of roughly 43, about 38% faster than a year ago.

Condo appreciation has swung firmly positive, up roughly 14% year over year. Source: Compass via MLS.

Read those together and the picture is clear. Buyers are back and transacting in real volume, yet the supply of condos has been cut nearly in half from a year ago. Fewer choices and more motivated buyers is the classic setup for firming prices, and both the price and the pace figures now confirm it. Condos are also still a relative value next to houses, which pushed to a $2.05 million median, up a striking 25.2% year over year. That widening value gap between houses and condos is part of what is drawing buyers back into the condo segment.

It is worth putting the current moment in cycle context. The condo median bottomed near $950,000 in the depths of the rate shock a couple of years ago. At $1.25 million today, the segment has not just recovered that ground, it has moved to the higher end of its multi-year range. The recovery is real, and it is being led by the branded and full-service buildings where San Francisco's new wealth prefers to land.

The condo median has climbed to $1.25 million, near the top of its multi-year range. Source: Compass via MLS.

Not every building is moving at the same speed

The single most useful thing to understand about this market is that the citywide average hides a very wide spread. Twelve-month appreciation by neighborhood ranges from nearly 29% on the strong end to modestly negative on the soft end, and knowing which side of that line a specific building sits on is the entire game.

On the strength end, Yerba Buena and the Western Addition each posted roughly 28% appreciation over the past year, with Mission Bay close behind near 24%, Lower Pacific Heights around 18%, and Bernal Heights and Van Ness-Civic Center both around 17%. These are neighborhoods where demand has clearly reset to a higher level.

At the prestige end, the trophy buildings continue to command the premiums you would expect. On a price-per-square-foot basis in July, Cow Hollow led the city at about $1,585, followed by Pacific Heights near $1,359, Russian Hill around $1,280, and South Beach near $1,221. Hayes Valley and Nob Hill both cleared $1,180 per square foot.

Trophy neighborhoods still command the premiums, led by Cow Hollow. Source: Compass via MLS.

South Beach deserves a closer look, because it tells two stories at once. It was the busiest condo neighborhood in the entire city in July by transaction count, yet its twelve-month appreciation actually sits slightly negative and its homes are still selling right around asking. For a buyer, that combination of deep activity and patient pricing is opportunity, a chance to buy into a marquee waterfront neighborhood without the bidding frenzy happening elsewhere. For a seller there, it is a reminder that presentation and pricing strategy matter more than in the neighborhoods where scarcity is doing the work for you.

South Beach led the city in condo sales volume in July. Source: Compass via MLS.

The high-demand pockets look very different. In neighborhoods like Bernal Heights, Central Richmond, and Lower Pacific Heights, effectively every recent sale closed over asking, and homes are moving in a matter of days. Same city, same month, completely different negotiating dynamics. That is why a citywide median, useful as it is for headlines, is no substitute for building-level analysis when you are actually buying or selling. If you want the on-the-ground texture of a specific area, my neighborhood field guides, like the recent ones for Nob Hill and Russian Hill, go well beyond the numbers.

From the field: two closings that prove the thesis

The data above is not abstract to me. This July, I represented the buyer of a two-bedroom residence at the Four Seasons Private Residences at 706 Mission Street, which closed on July 17 at $1,500,000. It is exactly the kind of transaction the numbers are describing: a full-service, branded building with concierge, valet, and hotel-caliber amenities, the precise profile of property that San Francisco's wealth-effect buyers are competing for right now. It is also a telling data point on value. Just above the citywide condo median, that price bought a fully branded Four Seasons residence with services most standalone buildings simply cannot match.

What that deal reinforced for me is that the premium segment is not simply about price. Buyers at this level are underwriting lifestyle, service, and long-term hold value, and they move decisively when the right residence appears. It also underscored how thin the supply is. When inventory in a category is this scarce, knowing the building, its HOA, its rules, and its true comparable set is what separates a clean close from a missed opportunity.

That momentum carried right through the end of summer. I also closed 317 Harriet Street #18 for a buyer, another sign that serious demand did not pause when rates ticked up. Well-prepared buyers are still finding, and winning, the right homes.

What this means if you are selling

The conditions favor you, but they reward preparation, not assumption. Inventory is scarce and buyers are competing, which is why well-positioned condos are trading faster than they have in years and a large share are closing over list. The risk is misreading a strong market as a forgiving one. Buyers here are wealthy and discerning, and they underwrite value carefully. A building with strong recent comparables, clean disclosures, and thoughtful staging will draw the multiple-offer energy the data suggests is available. A mispriced or under-prepared listing will still sit, even now.

Timing matters too. New condo listings seasonally peak in spring and taper through the back half of the year, so the competition for buyer attention actually thins out heading into fall. If you have been waiting for confidence to return to the condo segment before listing, it has returned. The question is no longer whether there is demand. It is whether your specific building and your pricing are aligned with where that demand actually is. A complimentary home valuation is the simplest place to start.

What this means if you are buying

You are buying into a firming market with limited supply, so discipline matters. The good news is that condos remain the most attainable path into the neighborhoods you actually want, and the value gap against single-family houses is real and widening. The better news is that the spread between neighborhoods means there are still genuine pockets of value, South Beach among them, where activity is high but pricing has stayed reasonable.

The move now is to get fully prepared before you fall in love with a specific unit. Financing in order, priorities clear, and a precise read on what comparable homes in that exact building have done over the last twelve months. In a market this segmented, the buyers who win are the ones who know a fair number when they see it and can act without hesitation. That is doubly true in the branded and full-service buildings, where a single strong listing can draw several serious buyers at once. You can browse current San Francisco condos for sale to see what is on the market today.

The bottom line

San Francisco's condo market has moved from recovery into genuine strength, powered by a wave of local wealth that is not showing up anywhere else in the region. Prices are up double digits, inventory is scarce, homes are selling faster, and the premium and branded buildings are leading the way. But the averages tell only part of the story. The real advantage this year belongs to whoever understands their specific neighborhood and building at the granular level.

That is exactly the work I do, and this summer's closings are proof of it in practice. If you own a condo and want to know what it would realistically bring in today's market, or you are looking to buy and want a clear-eyed read on where the value is, I would welcome the conversation.

Market data sourced from the Compass International Holdings August 2026 San Francisco House & Condo Market Outlook, reflecting activity through July 2026. Figures are approximate and subject to revision. This is not intended to solicit property already listed.